I wanted to say something about the elections resu...

I wanted to say something about the elections results but things are still confusing to me and I can't see any real light from the various possibilities ahead of us. I think there were huge violations and a fraud especially in the south and the north. This elections will cost Iraq and whoever decides to stand by her side at least 10 more years of suffering. The worst thing is that it could have prevented if some of us at least had paid attention to the real danger.
The final outcome I don't doubt. I still believe firmly that Iraq will be a true democracy and a model for the Arab and Muslim world but the cost and time have just been doubled.
Anyway, that's not what I wanted to say today but I thought I should say something about it. I also realized I haven't blogged in a long time after one of the readers mailed me to ask what was going on.
What I want to say is Merry Christmas to all of you brothers and sisters! May your days be always joyful, peacful and meanningful.

Saddam's trial; the good, the bad and the ugly.

Today's session of Saddam's trial was more eventful than the previous ones but it still showed a few things that were present before and made them clearer.

To me, there were two good things, two bad and one ugly. One of the bad things, which was really thrilling although I saw it coming and didn't think it would affect me that way, is how one of the victims, the witness was able to stand in front of an Iraqi court beside Saddam and his top aids and telling their hideous crimes. There I saw an average Iraqi, who has no power or wealth, a man whom Saddam used to sign the execution order of hundreds like him without even knowing the name of one of them, standing boldly and exposing this monster's horrible crimes. He was not afraid and returned Saddam's words with stronger ones. I must admit that I saw this man as a hero and I think many Iraqis share a similar view with that of mine, as these people terrorized us for such a long time that even hearing their names used to paralyze us with fear. Till now and when I think of this man's position, I feel unsure on whether I would feel some fear or not if I was in his place.

Saddam was trying to remain calm and put a fake smile on his face but I could see through his eyes that he was going to explode. I think he couldn't believe that an Iraqi, just an average Iraqi would talk to him that way and name him as just "Saddam" not the "Mujahi leader Saddam Hussain God bless him" or any of the other crap we had to add before his name otherwise…
Saddam's brother, Barzan was in a much worse shape as everybody must have noticed. This is not strange at all and it was one of Saddam's ways of presenting himself as the best available choice by surrounding himself with insanely ignorant and barbarian people. I heard it from so many Iraqis in the past saying, "Well who would replace him if he's gone? Brazan, Izzat Il Douri or Taha Yassin Ramadan, or maybe Oday?? No it's better that he stays" thinking that all alternatives are worse and that there are no men in Iraq but those scum!

The other good thing was the general attitude of the trial and the way the judge dealt with the defendants (although it's one of the bad things too in a way). I think the way Iraqis are treating Saddam shows clearly that they're better than being ruled by a man like him and I'm very pleased by the civility of the court. I've heard many Iraqis complaining about how soft the judge was in the 1st session and many said they hated him. This time I heard the same people saying they're starting to love him!

Still I must say the judge could've been more firm with the many unacceptable behaviors by Saddam, his lawyers and his brother without crossing the line to being abusive of their rights. To be honest I think the judge was instructed to be extra-nice with Saddam, and I think that has more to do with presenting the trial to the western audience, particularly the American rather than the Iraqi audience. This trial is certainly a universal one but I think Iraqis should count more than others and I also think that American politics, mainly external is playing a major role here. I think Americans are trying to say to the rest of the world, "See how much we have changed this place!" which is ok and good but Iraqis' feelings, and more important justice, should count more than that since contempt for the court is a big deal in the best democracies.

The other bad thing is the testimony of the major witness. It was incoherent, but that's ok and it's not the issue. The issue is that the man, whom I have no question about his honesty in telling Al Dujail story, was, as I believe, coached by certain parties inside the Iraqi government, and this is really bad. I can say he was coached by the SCIRI and was offered extra information on the investigation for two reasons. One to show Al Dujail massacre, at leastin a small way, as a massacre against the She'at (the witness kept mentioning Karbala'a and Imam Hussain for no real reason and focused on one of the victims who he said was a visitor from Karbala'a for no real reason to. He said that if Saddam's men had found out that the guy was from Karbala'a they'd leveled the holy shrines with ground). The other point I think is to document some of Saddam's crimes against Iran (the witness mentioned that he saw the Iranian ex-minister of oil in jail, which I think was irrelevant and not needed at all, that's if it's true).

Other than that the ugliest part was the behavior of Saddam and his brother, Barzan. These two were very polite with the judge all the time (Barzan was even begging for mercy on one session) but as soon as they saw a simple Iraqi citizen with no power (or so they think) they regained that arrogant look and assumed the faces of the rulers again! How coward and how stupid at the same time! But it was more than great (and surprisingly shocking) to hear the words of that simple man from Dujail saying to Barzan, "Shut up!". That was worth the two hours in front of the TV.

The Iraqi media scandal.

I've been following the news about the Iraqi media scandal in the American media and some blogs and I feel I have a few things I can comment on.
First of all, anyone following the Iraqi newspapers closely won't find it hard to notice that most of the real information and interesting newsy stories come from American sources. It's hard to miss that with most of those stories because the translation is usually close to a literal one which preserves the original western style of reporting that was unknown in our media. Also the kind of information that you get is usually ones that cannot be obtained unless the reporter is working in the front with the American and Iraqi forces or has real access to the original sources which is impossible till now.

Also, whoever said that those stories were meant to improve the image of America and the coalition forces in Iraq is exaggerating, the least to say. I'm an avid reader of Iraqi newspaper and I haven't read any newsy story that gives credit to the American forces or government. In fact, apart from 3 or 4 who very occasionally publish materials that are slightly in favor of the American troops, all Iraqi newspapers are either totally against it no matter how much they're offered, or they're very scared of publishing such materials. What we get usually is positive stories about the Iraqi forces and the reconstruction process.

Another thing that I find silly is that the Americans are very concerned about the newsy stories and neglect the fact that there are dozens of obvious propaganda messages in Iraqi press that come from American sources directly. Such messages are placed similarly as advertisements that are supposed to be from the Iraqi interior ministry and list phone numbers and ask people to report suspicious activities to help "The heroes in the Iraqi security forces" (Like this one below from Al Mu'tamar newspaper)





I called one of those numbers a few weeks ago to report something I saw as suspicious. I was worried because I know the IP is infiltrated by the Ba'athists and that my phone number could be easily tracked but I also thought that the Americans must have figured a way to deal with that, and I was right.

The voice that answered on the other side had an unmistakable Jordanian accent. Now what would a Jordanian do in the Iraqi ministry of interior! The only logical conclusion for me was that the guy was a Jordanian American and that I was not calling the Iraqi interior ministry as I thought but some place in the American military, which honestly made me feel safer. Still, it gives a sad yet realistic picture of the readiness of the Iraqi security forces to handle security all alone.

Anyway, back to the media scandal, my point is that most Iraqis who read newspapers and certainly most journalists know the source of such stories contrary to the claim of some of them as reported by the LATIMES. Now it may have taken an American military general a few months to find out that his command was pouring information through Iraqi media for money but trust me, it took a lot less than that for so many Iraqis to find out the same. If there's something wrong then it's in the way this campaign has been handled and not the concept itself.

The amount of anti-American and anti-Iraqi propaganda is so huge in Iraq that I think there's a serious need to confront it one way or another. Moreover most of this propaganda is based on pure lies that are so ridiculous at times yet can affect many people. I think because it uses the conspiracy theory kind of approach which still appeals to many Iraqis. Why it does appeal to them? I think it's common in oppressed societies that had had no hand in deciding the way things are run in their own countries. They feel the evil but they can't see it or they're misled by their government to search for it somewhere else than where it is.
I think the need for PsyOps in Iraq is huge and the American government was even late and lacking in its efforts in this area. There are several governments that are pouring millions and millions of Dollars not just to support the insurgency but also to spread disinformation and anti-American, anti-Iraqi government propaganda.

When the two British soldiers were arrested, Sadirists and other radical religious newspapers said that those soldiers were found planting IEDs on the road! Imagine the destructive results of such disinformation spread by none other than the local government. Sadly many people believed that and other Iraqi newspapers picked it up to report it as the truth.
It seems however that the information campaign was facing some problems that should have been taken care of and I think an investigation is necessary in that it will provoke those in charge to search for more effective measures in handling the media war which is, as I see it, a very essential part of the war on terror that cannot be ignored or underestimated.

The December elections.

After the results of the January elections appeared, many Iraqis who were hoping for a democratic Iraq were discouraged. The results not only showed a significant dominance by the religious She'at parties but also gave a serious warning sign that democracy, while what the vast majority of Iraqis want, still may divide Iraq into three small countries or lead to a civil war given that the decades of oppression mainly directed towards the Sche'at and Kurds may cause these two to always vote along sectarian and ethnic lines, which subsequently would cause the Sunnis, who are till that time seemed to be living in the past and not accepting the fact that they've lost power, to vote similarly.

I myself was very discouraged during that time and started having serious doubts that democracy would ever work in Iraq. My best thoughts in the beginning were that we needed a civil war. I thought that it was probably inevitable once the Americans leave and may in the end convince everyone that the only way to succeed is to accept and tolerate each other instead of trying to dominate or isolate themselves. A couple of things gave me hope though, the fact that we have another election coming soon and that the elected government was doing terrible.

What I thought at that time and what I still think now is that there are three factors and three men in Iraq now who can influence and change the fate of Iraq more than others depending on their attitude towards this election. With other factors considered, I believe these three men have the greater effect and most of our hopes for the short term depend on how they handle these elections. These are in order of their role's significance are Allawi, Chalabi and Mithal Al Alousi.

Allawi's role is, as I believe, the most important and it shows also through the repeated assassination attempts against him, not all of them at least were done by terrorists but most likely by religious She'at parties, particularly the last one in Basra. Allawi, being a secular She'at and a leader who managed to show a firm personality in public was the choice of most Sunnis who were able and wanted to vote in the last elections. He also got many votes from She'at and I even know some Kurd friends who voted for him.
I thought at that time that if Allawi manages to attract a considerable number of Sunni parties or at least one of the major ones, he'd be creating a block in the parliament that is not She'at or Sunni or Kurd, which I believe is badly needed.

Things were not really good at Allawi's days but they were still much better in the minds of many Iraqis than al Ja'fari current government's policies, and that includes many who voted for the "Coalition List". This is something I've heard from many secular She'at who still voted for the "Coalition List" in the last elections saying they regret that vote and would vote for Allawi the next elections. Why seculars would vote for religious parties? I think for two reasons. One is that loyalty to the She'at sect is more a loyalty to a social group rather than a religious one. It's more a political stand to support your community rather than a religious one. Oppression seems to have this effect on religious groups and they become more like an ethnic group as the oppression continues for a long time. The other reason is the second man, Chalabi.

Many secular She'at seem to have thought, or convinced themselves to justify their vote, that Chalabi's presence in the "Coalition List" makes it a non-religious gathering. Also Chalabi was always known to be the hardest on hunting down the Ba'athists, something most She'at, religious and secular think that other politicians were being soft on.
My thoughts were that if Chalabi leaves the coalition list that list would look very bad in the eyes of all seculars including She'at and would probably cause other secular parties regardless of their origin to unite against it in case it got many seats in the parliament.

It may look strange to many that I consider a man like Mithal Al Alousi as a significant player in Iraq's politics and it was even stranger months ago. There are reasons why I believe this guy will have a major effect on Iraq's politics in the near future. While still not as well-known or popular as Allawi or even Chalabi, the man and since he was expelled by Chalbi from the "National Accordance" following his visit to Israel has been gaining support very rapidly. When he started his own party "The Democratic Iraqi Nation Party" a year ago he had only 1600 members in it. Today, only in Hilla he has 15000 registered members in his party. He's a secular Sunni that gained a lot of support in the south among She'at. That's something that gives hope. Moreover, and to me this is the most important point, he's the only Iraqi politician who says it loud and clear all the time that Iraq's interests lie in a strong strategic alliance with the United States and the free world, and people are not pushed away by that or by his visit to Israel for that matters but in fact it's having the opposite effect!

As I look at it now, Allawi has managed to attract some good number of Sunni figures including the ex-president al Yawir. Even the ex-Ba'athist well-known Sunni politician Salih al Mutlag who was against both governments and against the constitution said lately that he's most likely going to join Allawi.

On the other hand Chalabi did leave the coalition list. He says it's because he doesn't want a theocracy, they say they sacrificed him to win Sadr. I think both are not being honest about it but I also think that the coalition list made a huge strategic blunder if they're saying the truth even if the Sadirists will win them more votes than Chalabi as a single party in these elections.

Mithal represents the path I think Iraq should follow and he's doing pretty well but unfortunately he lacks the resources other less capable politicians have. His party (mine) is still not able to publish a newspaper! They published it once but couldn't go on because of the shortage in money. Still he's getting a reasonable publicity through TV stations and is doing very well in talk shows always embarrassing other politicians and exposing their hypocrisy.
These three men have another advantage over other parties. They're the only ones who so far have outlined their election campaign to focus mainly on local issues particularly economy. Allawi is promising more jobs, better electricity and better health care, Chalabi is promising a share of the oil revenue to each citizen delivered monthly and Mithal is promising more transparency in handling Iraq's economy and also to increase the number of items and the quality of the food ration. Other parties are still babbling about over-used slogans like "independence" and a "strong Iraq" that have stopped to mean anything to the average Iraqis who have much more urgent daily needs.

With these factors considered, the main element that will change Iraq's fate remains by far the brave and smart Iraqis who may have followed their emotions in the start but that's changing now. A committed Sunni relative of mine said to me while we were talking about the next elections and the general situation, "I'm sorry Ali, this time I won't vote for you, I'll vote either for Allawi or Mithal" I told him that we have joined Mithal and he seemed to be relieved that he was going to vote for someone he believes in and still not breaching his commitment to his family or tribe. He didn't know how happy and optimistic he made me seeing that he was using his brain, not what traditions, sectarian or tribal laws tell him, to decide on what he thinks is good for him, his family and his country.

Back to blogging.

Hello my friends,
I'm sorry I had to stay away this long but I tried to explain why, and I also had a lot of work to do and still do but I miss blogging and I miss my friends and there're also many things happening here that I feel I need to comment on so I decided I should post again.
I'm not going to address any of the issues I want to talk about now in details and will do that later today or tomorrow but I just wanted to say that I appreciate your care and understanding and I promise to do my best in posting as frequent as I can from now on.

If anyone wants to know, I've voted "yes" for the constitution although I think it's terrible but I saw it as the lesser evil especially after they made the change that allows the new parliament to review the whole document. I think it won't be easy at all to make the necessary changes but we do have a chance.

Also, for those who know and supported our political party "the Iraqi Pro-Democracy Party" I'm glad to tell you that we have joined another 2 liberal parties "The Iraqi Democratic Nation Party" headed by "Mithal Al Alousi" and "The New Iraq Movement" headed by parliament member "Mariam Al Rayis"(female) to form a new party called "The Iraqi Nation Party" which is now headed by "Mithal Al Alousi". I believe this new party has a much better chance than our old one in getting the right people to influential position and I think it will score pretty well in the next elections.
I was going to run for office within the new party but I then I realized I have so much work to do that I think I can be more useful in doing it especially that I know I'm not exactly a diplomat, and I'm also doing my job in helping our candidates with their campaign.

So generally things are still bad and the real danger and what's making things worse now is the increasing power of the radical She'at religious parties especially with the enormous help they're getting from Iran and with their militias intimidating people and interfering in almost every detail of their lives. Yet, there's hope and liberal and democratic parties are growing and grouping too. Also the Sunnis participation in the vote on the draft and their expected heavy participation in the upcoming elections had made a big difference that can be even noted by the reduced violence all over Iraq.

Anyway, I hope I'll be able to add more on this soon and I want to thank you again my friends, for everything.

I'll be away for a couple of months. I have my pri...

I'll be away for a couple of months. I have my primary exam coming and I need to prepare for it. So there won't be any blogging from now until that time and after that hopefully I'll resume blogging with more activity and more frequency. Thanks for all your care and support and I wish you all all the best.

Al Zawahiri threats

I think the latest message from Alqaeda that was sent through Ayman Al Zawahiri did not carry anything that new to us but it did confirm, in my opinion, what many of us believed regarding the relation between terrorism and the war in Iraq.

I have expressed my opinion before that if the war in Iraq is not part of the war on terror as some westerns think then why do we have almost all the terrorists in the world racing each other to achieve "martyrdom" in our land? Why not Afghanistan, Israel or their ultimate enemies; the west and America in particular? Sure they have attacked Europe but is that the best they can do there? I really doubt it. The terrorists have shown us that they have people almost everywhere in the world that are waiting for an order to blow themselves up in a bus, a train or a street crowded with civilians. So why are they putting most of their resources in Iraq instead of the west?

It's amazing how the terrorists themselves keep showing us in words and actions how vital the war in Iraq is for them and at the same time we have westerns and Americans saying that this war has nothing to do with fighting terrorism and that it's only increasing the danger of terrorism!

Another thing that this message and previous ones show is what other bloggers have already noted in that the Jihadis are following the western media and using the arguments of the far left to feed the fears of westerns and Americans, like the note about Vietnam and the use of the "no blood for oil". That's why I think that people like George Galloway and Michael Moor are doing a great service to the terrorists.

Another point that I have argued about before and that seems to be showing clearer in this message is that Al Qaeda cannot attack American soil, not in the short term at least and not until the fate of Iraq is sealed beyond doubt as far as the terrorists and their supporters are concerned.

It's interesting to see how bold Al Zawahiri was in threatening to launch more attacks against London but settled with the threat of killing more American soldiers in Iraq when talking about America. He has lost the initiative when it comes to attacking America in America so he's looking for the "next best thing", a big target that he still can safely attack without having to worry about a massive counter attack on all his bases and supportive regimes. He knows very well that if he attacks America the tyrannies that help him and his organization in attacking Iraq would not only stop offering him any help but will also do all they can to save their necks, like turning in any Al Qaeda men they have on their lands or if they can't then they would cooperate fully with the US in security field giving her access to all the info they have on Al Qaeda which I guess they have a lot to tell after their lands where used as a passage for the terrorists to Iraq with them turning a blind eye or even facilitating the process.

I expect that no big or small attacks on America would happen at all, not within a year at least but I think the UK is still a target for some attacks. Those attacks would most likely be of limited nature too because the terrorists have seen the reaction the London attacks have left and they know it would be safer for them to avoid pushing things too far.

If Al Qaeda is free to attack the US it would've been done long time ago and more than once. They have the will, the men, the money and the communications with many radical Islamic groups inside the US. Moreover the simplicity of the bombs they used in London tells us that they don't even need to smuggle explosives or buy them from inside the US as they can use some of their followers there to manufacture them at home. So I think the only logical explanation for their refraining from launching such attacks is that they're not allowed to.

Large organizations such as Al Qaeda while can operate in secret, they still in order to make their presence noticeable and to maintain their universal operations would need the support of some government and intelligence agencies. We all know that had Iraq's neighbors been really cooperative it would be very difficult for Al Qaeda to maintain their efforts in the same magnitude or even closer. And it would be naive to think that such police states know nothing about fighters and cars loaded with bombs that travel thousands of miles and cross their lands to reach Iraq. Now most of the totalitarian regimes in the region are not friends with the terrorists and in fact terrorists have attacked those regimes occasionally while using their lands as a passage, but the bigger cause has forced them to cooperate in Iraq and form a sort of an unwritten contract that regulates this cooperation.

I say they know, they're facilitating it but they still want it to be controlled, i.e. they want to make sure that the people they're supporting -or even not doing anything against them- are not going to use this support to attack America because that would bring their end, and very fast.